一 | 竞技世界，不可能既要又要。 "A large part of former President Trump's popularity with his supporters is that he fights back against the establishment, whether it be the 'swamp' in Washington, DC, or the political party elites," says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "He has certainly been speaking out about the raid, but we will have to wait to see if anything comes of it. By that I mean whether there are any charges actually filed. Unlike most Americans, and aside from his media platforms, Trump has the resources to fight what he thinks are unfair actions by the government.",The FBI's unannounced search of Donald Trump's premises in Mar-a-Lago, Florida has reinvigorated his base, a Politico/Morning Consult survey shows. 58 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for the former president if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today. The share of support is visibly up from 54% in July and 53% in June, according to the pollsters. Likewise, a whopping 71% of GOP voters insist that Trump should run for president in 2024. Moreover, 72% of Republicans said they disagreed with the Mar-a-Lago raid.,Sputnik ExplainsFirst Assange, Now Trump: How Espionage Act of 1917 Became a Political Tool15:16 GMT,The Daily Mail argues, however, that the poll was conducted prior to the release of the FBI's search warrant and receipt, which showed that the bureau took at least 11 sets of classified documents from Trump's Florida house, with the Justice Department having probable cause to carry out the search based on possible Espionage Act abuses.,However, on August 13, Fox News broke that the FBI had allegedly laid their hands on documents shielded by client-attorney and executive privilege, with Donald Trump taking to his social media platform Truth Social and demanding that the documents in question be returned. The president lambasted the bureau for the raid, insisting that it was unnecessary and unjustified given that all documents in his possession were declassified and he and his team were ready to provide access to them any time.,"For the FBI to raid the home of the 45 President of the United States, or any President for that matter, is totally unheard of and unthinkable," Trump wrote on Sunday. "This Break In was a sneak attack on democracy (our Republic!), and was both unannounced and done at a time when the President was not even present.",Trump supporters reacted passionately to the ex-president's posts by rallying outside Mar-a-Lago and Trump's Bedminster, New Jersey golf club. They were seen holding signs reading "Save America" and "You raided the wrong president.",Sputnik ExplainsHow Trump's 2024 Bid & Jan 6 Committee's Effort to Delegitimize Him May Pan Out19 July, 18:41 GMT,Midterm Elections at Stake,The unfolding situation will definitely backfire on the upcoming November midterm elections, according to Hagle.,"The overall effect on the midterm elections will vary depending on how the situation plays out," the political science professor says. "Trump supporters, and Republicans more generally, were already quite motivated to vote in the midterms, but this just intensifies that desire. Democrats were less motivated and the party was desperately searching for something to get their base motivated. Some thought the Supreme Court's abortion decision might do so, but that doesn't seem to have happened beyond a certain group of core voters.",Hagle notes that Democrats were successful with an "anti-Trump" approach in 2020; he believes that they would like to try that again.,"The thinking might be that if Trump is, figuratively, on the ballot it would help them in the midterms," the academic remarks. "I'm not so sure. There may be some who get more motivated with an anti-Trump fervor, but the economy will still be the key for the important voters who are less concerned about politics and more about day to day living.",The FBI raid came after mainstream media reports that Trump may announce his presidential bid in September 2022 or even earlier. Politico and The Washington Post reported in mid-July that the former president had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential 2024 campaign.,The DoJ investigation into Trump triggered speculation that he may announce his new presidential bid very soon, the Daily Mail reports, also referring to a new "campaign-style video" released by the ex-president on his Truth Social platform.,Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul has called on US lawmakers to repeal the 1917 Espionage Act, after it turned out that the DoJ suspects Trump of violating Section 793 of the law. Section 793 specifically addresses "gathering, transmitting or losing defense information," and also includes refusal to return information that is demanded by the government.,"I don't think it's realistic to suggest that it be repealed," says Hagle. "It's more likely that certain limitations could be placed on it to help prevent the abuses that people perceive are occurring with it.",In addition to that, there are assumptions that the FBI raid was nothing short of a fishing expedition connected to the probe by the House Select Committee on January 6 Attack aimed at delegitimizing him before the 2024 race.,"The Justice Department should 'show that this was not just a fishing expedition, that they had due cause to go in and to do this, that they did exhaust all other means," Republican Senator Mike Rounds told NBC's Meet the Press, suggesting that the release of the FBI's affidavit would help. "And if they can't do that, then we've got a serious problem on our hands."。美国四大联盟的不可能三角：争冠、练兵、便宜——想争冠，就得把钱和薪水给熟男老将；想练兵，就得承担犯错与输球；想避税，就无法维持夺冠深度。
二 | 拳击/格斗的不可能三角：体型、爆发力、持久——想要体型优势，就得脱水降重，于是不能持久；想兼具持久和爆发力，就不能减重，于是没体型优势。足球的不可能三角：高位逼抢、高压续航、集体健康——高逼抢累人，高续航+高逼抢=过载于是受伤；所以跑动强队没几支能持久；巴黎过去两年的欧冠，也托赖了法甲强度低：甚至可以替补踢法甲、主力踢欧冠。跑步的不可能三角：跑量、强度、健康——跑量堆心肺，强度堆配速，跑量X强度毁健康。所以三个里面一般只有俩。
三 | 将上面这些道理合起来，就是竞技世界终极不可能：极端产量 × 团队完整 × 最终冠军。具体有：NBA常规赛得分王不夺冠——三分球时代只有：2000鲨鱼、2025亚历山大，以及乔丹的六个冠军。NBA常规赛助攻王不夺冠——三分球时代只有：1987魔术师，2020勒布朗。NFL传球码数王不夺超级碗——例外只有2022年马霍姆斯。那年他也是NFL本世纪唯一常规赛MVP+超级碗MVP。世界杯金靴奖不夺冠——1986年以来，只有2002的罗纳尔多例外。道理也不难明白：世界杯金靴：球队就指望你进球。
四 | NBA常规赛得分王：球队就指望你得分。NBA常规赛助攻王：球队就指望你传球——1987魔术师和2020勒布朗自己还能得分，且1987湖人还有个天勾，2020湖人还有个浓眉。NFL传球码数王：球队就指望你传球。要么是球队太弱，要么是你独掌球权，要么是两者兼具。总之你一个人厉害，那对手只要关注你就好咯！马霍姆斯六个全明星赛，三个超级碗：其中传球码数最少的2019和2023各一个超级碗。汤姆·布雷迪七个超级碗，常规赛传球码数分别是生涯倒一、倒三、倒四、倒五、倒九、倒十二，最好的2020是生涯第七。2002罗纳尔多则是另一个例子：1998年他4球3助攻，基本包揽巴西进攻发起，金球奖但世界亚军；2002他专注禁区进球，里瓦尔多和小罗帮他创造，于是他银球奖但世界冠军。
五 | 个人承担少一点，结果反而好一点。但乔丹终究做到了六次得分王x总冠军？乔丹1987-1990，场均37分5助攻、35分6助攻、33分8助攻、34分6助攻。
六 | 1991-93：场均32分6助攻，30分6助攻，33分6助攻，球队61、67、57胜，三连冠。
七 | 1996-98：场均30分4助攻，30分4助攻，29分4助攻，球队72、69、62胜，三连冠。72胜、69胜和67胜的年份，他场均30分4助攻、29分4助攻、30分6助攻：战绩最好的年份，反而是数据比较差的年份——因为球队不用他自己扛，他也把任务更多分给队友们了。自己更多无球，更多做些数据看不见的事。所以哪怕是乔丹这样的反规律存在，六次得分王x总冠军，依然是常规赛数据相对不算壮丽的年份。
八 | 只是他得分能力超越时代太多，所以才能得分王x总冠军手拿把掐。乔丹不是在夺冠时变得更会得分，而是在夺冠时不用那么拼命得分。
九 | 实际上，乔丹、马霍姆斯、魔术师、勒布朗和罗纳尔多这些偶尔的例外，本身都是历史性的存在，而那些年份也都是：我既是数据中心，但球队又不只靠我。这就是竞技世界的不可能三角：极端产量 × 团队完整 × 最终冠军。三者通常只能取二。大包大揽数据荣誉一把抓我全都要——那基本不可能。
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