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Has China’s industrial development squeezed others’ room for growth?: People’s Daily_我的网站

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    A busy scene at the Port of Shanghai on July 24, 2026 Photo: VCG
China's rapid rise in innovation capabilities has drawn broad recognition and positive assessments from the international community. However, some have taken a different stance, expressing concerns over China's technological and industrial advancement and even promoting the so-called "China Shock 2.0" narrative for various reasons, including the unfounded claim that China's industrial development is limiting others' growth opportunities.
A closer look reveals why this narrative does not hold up, for two fundamental reasons.
First, this narrative deliberately overlooks the inclusive, open and empowering nature of China's innovation.
China has always been a committed practitioner, active promoter, and major contributor to global economic, trade and technological cooperation. Through technological advancement and industrial upgrading, China has not only developed itself, but also provided the world with an increasing number of "innovation dividends."
For instance, digital economy, technological innovations in areas such as artificial intelligence applications, mobile payments and e-commerce have provided developing countries with valuable pathways for digital transformation. In the green energy sector, advances in China's photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicle industries have directly driven down the global cost of renewable energy, offering affordable solutions for countries tackling climate change. In consumer markets, high-quality, efficient, and cost-effective Chinese products have expanded global supply, reduced living costs and helped ease inflationary pressures worldwide.
Moreover, fast-growing Chinese innovation-driven companies have delivered returns of several times or even dozens of times for investors from around the world. 
Companies from around the world can quickly find partners in China across the entire innovation chain, from research and development (R&D) and pilot production to mass manufacturing, making the commercialization of innovation more efficient.
They have not only succeeded in the Chinese market, but also strengthened their competitiveness globally. Facts have demonstrated that China's emerging technologies and products bring opportunities rather than shocks, and empowerment rather than threats to the world.
Second, it ignores the fundamental trends of technological innovation and the underlying dynamics of industrial evolution.
China's innovation has been built through years of strengthening its own capabilities. In recent years, the country has continued to increase investment in research and development, with its R&D spending ranking second globally. 
Funding for basic research has reached a record high as a share of total R&D expenditure, while its pool of scientific and technological talent continues to expand. Through closer collaboration between the scientific community and industries, China has made rapid technological progress, driven continuous industrial upgrading and taken a leading position in some fields.
Innovation-driven development inevitably fuels industrial transformation and the dynamic reshaping of global production capacity, which is a natural outcome of international industrial division and cooperation. 
For example, after years of technological accumulation, China has seized the opportunities created by the global green transition and developed competitive strengths in the "new trio" industries - new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products - which have gained growing popularity in global markets. Portraying China's industrial upgrading as a "shock" is, in essence, a rejection of the broader historical trend of economic globalization.
"Innovation dividends" represent a positive-sum game, as the benefits of technological progress ultimately serve humanity. Distorting China's technological and industrial innovation and promoting the so-called "China Shock 2.0" narrative reflect outdated zero-sum thinking in some countries, while also revealing attempts to use criticism of China as a pretext to further advance protectionist policies.
Cutting through the rhetoric of protectionism, it becomes clear that the so-called "China Shock 2.0" narrative and "China overcapacity" claims are politically driven narratives that are detached from reality and lack factual basis.
Over the past decade, China has remained a major engine of global economic growth, contributing around 30 percent to global growth. In the past, China mainly provided the world with "market dividends" through its vast domestic market and cost advantages. Today, while continuing to offer greater "market dividends," China has also created "development dividends" by serving as a stable anchor and important hub for global industrial cooperation through its industrial growth. It is also providing the world with increasing "innovation dividends" through technological advancement.
China's market advantages, industrial development and technological progress are generating growing "market dividends," "development dividends" and "innovation dividends." These benefits, working together and reinforcing one another, are creating greater development opportunities and broader space for the world, offering a key perspective for understanding "China Opportunity 2.0."
Amid a complex and volatile international landscape and slowing global economic growth, innovation has become a crucial pathway to counter downward pressures and generate new growth momentum. Addressing global growth challenges requires greater cooperation in innovation. Rather than spending efforts on crafting the "China Shock 2.0" narrative, some countries should focus on domestic structural reforms and enhance their industrial competitiveness through openness and cooperation.
Embracing China means embracing the future. By using technological innovation to drive industrial innovation, China is accelerating the development of new quality productive forces. At the same time, China continues to expand high-level opening-up and provide new opportunities for the world through its own development. A more open and innovation-driven China will continue to deliver greater development dividends and work with countries around the world to build a more prosperous future.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 7, 2026.
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B |     【文/观察者网专栏作者 侯峰】 任期的最后一天，拜登选择了在南卡罗来纳州黑人教堂社区度过，鼓励情绪低落的民主党同仁不要放弃希望。然而就在一周前，拜登还是信心满满的。在一场外交政策的告别演说中，他指出，在与中国的长期竞争中，现在的美国比他上任时处于更佳的战略地位，并称过去有专家预测中国经济将不可避免地超越美国，但在他执政后，“中国将永远无法超越我们”。

C | 但显然，人们并没有把他的豪言壮语当回事。

D | 根据CNN1月16日的报道，由SSRS进行的一项最新民调显示，拜登总统离任时的支持率将是其任期内的最低水平。美国人普遍认为，拜登的四年任期是失败的，他的政府几乎没有扭转人们对国家整体状况或经济的长期负面看法。美国民意调查机构盖洛普公司去年12月的一份调查显示，美国民众不认可拜登政府和国会的工作，对经济表现持负面评价，并对国家发展方向感到不满。

E | 调查显示，仅39%的民众认可拜登政府工作，仅17%的民众认可国会工作。民调和民主党败选都说明，拜登四年执政给国家和世界带来更多的是负面影响。“中国将永远无法超越我们”？2021年，中美GDP差距为5.2万亿美元，中国GDP占比美国GDP约77%，达到历史高点。之后，2022年，中美GDP差距扩大至7.47万亿美元，中国GDP占比美国GDP约70%。2023年，美国GDP为27.4万亿美元，中国GDP为17.9万亿美元，差距再次扩大到9.5万亿美元，中国GDP相当于美国的约65.4%。2024年前三季度，中国占美国GDP比重为61%。继西方传媒及御用社交媒体、公知炒作的“中国崩溃论”、“中国威胁论”之后，“中国崛起见顶论”一时间甚嚣尘上。看上去中美GDP的差距扩大，似乎印证了西方社会流行的“70%魔咒”。所谓“70%魔咒”，是指只要一个国家GDP达到美国的70%，就会遭遇美国的打压而逐渐衰落。20世纪80年代末，日本GDP一度占到美国的70%，但随着美国借助《广场协议》等一系列打压，日本90年代泡沫经济破灭后，陷入失去的三十年，如今GDP总量只有美国的15%左右。1971年苏联总产值是美国GDP的70.1%。之后，在美西方的地缘政治围堵下，加上内部的腐败变质，苏联经济每况愈下。在颜色革命的加持下，最终于1991年12月25日土崩瓦解，彻底消除了美苏冷战最大的威胁。那么，在拜登疯狂的围堵打压下，中国会步日本、苏联后尘吗？ 2021年末到2024年一季度末，人民币对美元贬值超过10%至1:7.3。若按2021年末不变汇率重新核算去年中国经济，中国GDP首次突破20万亿美元，占美国比重超73%，超越苏日曾经达到的高度。事实上，按照国际货币基金组织和世界银行的购买力平价法测算，中国GDP在2016年就已追上美国。2023年中国GDP为32.93万亿“国际美元”，美国为27.36万亿，中国已经是美国的120%。

F | 然而，以美元为基础的GDP计算方法像一个数字游戏，比如中国相对应的国内GDP增长是5%，而美国相对应国内的GDP增量为2点多，显然中国的增长速度高过美国。

G | 美国利用地缘政治危机，在欧洲、中东拱起战火，在亚洲炒作“中国威胁论”，极大增加了全球经济的危机感，美国股市和投资成了全球游资唯一的避风港和保险池。再加上美国用各种金融手段，比如加息等，大幅提升美元价值，导致全世界的货币，包括人民币对美元贬值。由此相对于用美元计算的中国名义GDP就变成只有4，而美国的GDP提升到3或更多。

H | 正是这种数字游戏，增加了拜登认为中国永远无法超越美国的胆气。越吹越大的金融泡沫事实上，2021年到2023年间，美国年均通胀率超过7%，同期中国低于2%。2022年底，根据标普公司的统计，美国大中城市的房价，相比于2019年上涨37%。为了应对高通胀，从2022年起，美联储又连续加息，2024年美国房贷利率已经高达6%-7%。而美国国债已经在2024年年中超过35万亿美元，主要原因是联邦政府长期入不敷出，政府预算赤字“病根”难除。美国财政部数据显示，美国联邦政府2023财年财政赤字达到近1.7万亿美元，比上一财年增加23%。为了填补亏空，美国政府通常会发行国债筹款，债务“雪球”由此越滚越大。1990年时，美国政府债务总额约为3.2万亿美元，2000年增至5.62万亿美元，2010年进一步突破13.5万亿美元。进入2020年，债务总额已达到27.7万亿美元，2023年更是突破34万亿美元。截至2025年1月10日，美国未偿债务总额达到36.17万亿美元。美国经济看上去不错，但那是美元堆出来的，欠债总是要还的。纽约时报1月15刊文指出：中国2024年的贸易顺差高达7万多亿人民币（折合美元接近1万亿），创下记录。世界另一端的情况几乎截然相反：美国去年的贸易逆差预计将达到约1万亿美元，但中国的贸易顺差中只有三分之一来自美国。世界各地的国家也与美国有巨大的贸易顺差——虽然规模远不及中国，但加起来越来越大。有些国家需要用与美国的贸易顺差来弥补本国与中国的贸易逆差。问题是美国靠什么来弥补巨大的全球贸易逆差？美国能为世界提供什么样货真价实物美价美的商品呢？美国大宗出口的除了农产品、油气和军工产品，剩下的难道只能靠印制出口绿钞，就能确保拜登让美国永远立于不败之地的信念吗？ 显然中美名义GDP的差距拉大，并不反映中美的国力、实力和创造力的现实。中国高科技领域快速崛起，威胁到美国霸权根基2019年5月15日，美国总统特朗普签署《保障信息与通讯技术及服务供应链安全》的行政令。该行政令宣布，为应对在信息和通讯技术及服务上面临的“重大国家安全威胁”，美国进入国家紧急状态。从那天起，特朗普和拜登行政当局开始了对华为无所不用其极的打压，以期从根本上阻断中国高科技领域的追赶势头。这也意味着以华为为代表的中国高科技，已经让美国充分感觉到了致命威胁。

I | 在其后两届美国政府变本加厉地打压下，2021年华为智能手机的全球市场占有率跌至仅剩4%。但华为没有被打趴下，反而浴火重生。到2024年，华为智能手机强势回归，全年出货量4600万台，同比增长37%，市场份额高达16%，位居第二，实现了对苹果超越，势将重回巅峰。不仅如此，华为还建立起自己高端麒麟芯片在内的智能手机全产业链，鸿蒙生态跨界操作系统，并积极扩展到包括升腾Ascend 910C人工智能（AI）芯片，还有服务器在内的Atlas人工智能计算平台、华为云的物联网平台、以及华为高阶智能驾驶系统。拜登任期最得意之作，莫过于用高端芯片卡中国高科技，特别是人工智能研发的脖子。然而去年底，就在西方感觉中国AI似乎该断气之际，一个叫DeepSeek-V3的人工智能生成式大模型横空出世，性能匹敌GPT-4o。

J | 但DeepSeek-V3训练的预算却非常低，“2048个GPU、2个月、近600万美元”，相比之下，GPT-4o等模型的训练成本约为1亿美元，至少在万个GPU量级的计算集群上训练。最近公布的六代机、空警3000预警机，带电磁弹射的“无人机航母“076”型两栖攻击舰，以及高超音速导弹，都是一些遥遥领先的高科技装备，一旦入役，将极大改变现代战争的形态，重塑世界地缘政治的战略格局。这种不可思议的中国智慧，令拜登团队彻底不知所措。至于阻止中国进步，中断中国超越美国的步伐，人走茶凉的拜登恐怕只能哀叹一声了。

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